Adults were asked if they would be more likely to vote for “Mr. Smith ”, a 48 year old male, married, Presbyterian, with a Business Management degree, or “Mr. Jones ”, a 54 year old male, who is married and has a law degree, if they were both equally qualified to be president. The difference is that for one half of our respondents, Mr. Jones is a Baptist and for the other half, Mr. Jones is a Mormon. In the race between Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones, the Baptist, Mr. Smith wins 34 percent to 13 percent, with 53 percent not sure. In the race between Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones, the Mormon, 39 percent say they would vote for Mr. Smith with only nine percent voting for Mr. Jones. More than half (52%) were not sure. In other words, everything else being equal, five percent more would vote for Mr. Smith if he is running against a Mormon than if he is running against a Baptist.

These are just some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,121 U.S. adults conducted online between December 18 and 20, 2007 by Harris Interactive.

One thing in Gov. Romney ’s favor is that the numbers of those who would vote for Mr. Smith, a Presbyterian, over Mr. Jones the Mormon, have dropped since earlier this year (52% for Mr. Smith and 9% for Mr. Jones with 40% not sure in March) and more are unsure. The past nine months of discussion on this issue may have moved some voters from the “definitely not a Mormon candidate ” category to the “not sure ”.

Partisan differences may also be an issue for Mr. Romney. Looking only at the Republican voters, a plurality (41%) would vote for the Presbyterian candidate while 19 percent would vote for the Baptist. In the other race, just under half (46%) would vote for the Presbyterian, while only nine percent would vote for the Mormon candidate. Among those who identify themselves as Born Again, the numbers are similar in the second race. In the first race, just over one-quarter (28%) would vote for the Baptist while 25 percent would vote for the Presbyterian. In the second race, 45 percent would vote for the Presbyterian while just five percent of those who are Born Again would vote for the Mormon.

A different picture emerges when adults are asked flat out, “Would you vote for a Mormon who is running for president if he was otherwise qualified? ” Over two in five (41%) say they would vote for a Mormon while just 25 percent say they would not and one-third (34%) are not sure. These numbers are similar to March when 44 percent said they would vote for a Mormon, 29 percent said they would not and 27 percent were not sure.

Looking at this by party, half of Republicans (50%) say they would vote for a Mormon while 23 percent say they would not and 27 percent are unsure. Those who are Born Again are still skeptical as two in five (40%) say they would vote for a Mormon while one-third (32%) would not with 29 percent not sure.

So What?

As caucus goers in Iowa and primary voters in New Hampshire think about their final choices for their party ’s nominees, there are many different things they need to consider. One of those might be the religions of the different candidates; Mitt Romney ’s religion may very well be a factor and, in some cases, a deciding factor in those final vote choices. While he has done as much as possible to inform voters about the Mormon faith, Americans are still unsure of it and this may be one of the reasons they do not vote for him. In a Republican primary that has turned very competitive, it may be enough to cost him the nomination.

Methodology

This Harris Poll ^® was conducted online within the United States between December 18 and 20, 2007, among 2,121 adults (aged 18 and over). The first Smith/Jones question was asked among 1,087 adults and the second Smith/Jones question was asked among 1,034 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents ’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error ” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult populations of the respective countries. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.