Harris Interactive has asked these questions at about the same time each year to limit any possible seasonal bias. This year ’s survey, conducted by telephone among a cross-section of 1,052 adults between October 16 and 23, 2007, finds that the Alienation Index has increased modestly from 54 last year to 56, the highest level during the presidency of George W. Bush.

The situation may actually be somewhat worse for the president when one considers the trends for some individual questions. Specifically:

— Those who believe that “ the people running the country don ’t really care what happens to you ” have increased six points since last year, from 53 percent to 59 percent;

— Those who believe that “ most people with power try to take advantage of people like you ” have risen three points from 54 percent last year to 57 percent;

— Those who believe that “ the people in Washington are out of touch with the rest of the country ” have increased seven points, from 68 percent last year to 75 percent this year. However this question, which has been asked only since 1992, is not included in the calculation of the Index.

Surprisingly perhaps, given President Richard Nixon ’s ignominious resignation and the controversy surrounding Watergate and the Vietnam War, alienation was significantly lower during his tenure in the White House (averaging 47) than under any of his six successors. The best (i.e. lowest) measure during his presidency was 36 (reported toward the end of his first year in office in 1969).

Under Lyndon Johnson the numbers were even better, averaging 32 in the only two years when the questions were asked and standing at 29 in 1966, after the passage of the Voting Rights Act and the introduction of Medicare and Medicaid.

The Alienation Index During Eight Presidencies

Even though the Harris Alienation Index has increased this year to the highest level during President Bush ’s presidency, there have been many occasions in the past when it was higher — i.e. more people felt alienated — than it is today.

Because Harris Interactive has asked these questions 36 times over the last 40 years, starting in 1966 under the presidency of Lyndon Baines Johnson, it is possible to compare the level of alienation under eight presidents.

It may be surprising to report that despite the current unpopularity of President George W. Bush and the widening financial gulf between the very rich and the middle class, the level of alienation now is lower than it was in six of the eight years when Bill Clinton was in the White House.

It is clear that the level of alienation is not closely tied to the popularity of incumbent presidents:

• Under George W. Bush, the Alienation Index has averaged 53 and has varied between 47 and 56;
• Under Bill Clinton, it averaged 62 (9 points higher than the average for President Bush) and varied between 55 and 67;
• Under George H.W. Bush, it averaged 62 and varied between 58 and 66;
• Under Ronald Reagan, it averaged 57 and varied between 54 and 62;
• Under Jimmy Carter, it averaged 55 (the questions were asked only twice while he was in the White House);
• Under Gerald Ford, the questions were asked only once, in 1976 when the Index stood at 57.

The Current State of Alienation

In this new survey, the Index was computed by averaging the percentages of adults who now agree with the five questions:

• 73 percent believe that “ the rich get richer and the poor get poorer ”;
• 59 percent believe that “ the people running the country don ’t really care what happens to you ”;
• 57 percent believe that “ most people with power try to take advantage of people like you ” ;
• 55 percent feel that “ what you think doesn ’t count very much any more ” ;
• 36 percent feel that “ you ’re left out of things going on around you ”

So What?

It is a reasonable assumption that the higher the level of alienation, the harder it will be for a Republican to win the 2008 presidential election. Given current numbers, however, the current level of alienation does not seem to high enough to make a big difference.

TABLE 1

ALIENATION INDEX – TREND SINCE 1966

The Harris Interactive Alienation Index is calculated by taking an average (mean) of those who agree with the first five statements (see Table 3)

The Alienation Index was not calculated in 1967, 1970, 1975, 1979, 1980 and 1981.

TABLE 2

ALIENATION INDEX UNDER EIGHT PRESIDENTS

TABLE 3

ALIENATION INDEX: DECADE AVERAGES (MEAN)

TABLE 4

ALIENATION – INDIVIDUAL QUESTION TREND

"Now I want to read you some things some people have told us they have felt from time to time. Do you tend to feel or not feel (READ LIST)?"

Those saying “Yes, feel this way ”

“N/A ” Not included in the Alienation Index.

Note: These questions have always been asked at the end of the year, usually in November or December.

TABLE 5

ALIENATION INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHICS