As 2007 draws to a close, the Bush administration
’s main Iraq offensive, the surge of the sending of additional troops to Iraq earlier this year, is not getting the bad marks from the American public that it once did. True, the same numbers have continued to say that the surge is not working (38% in May, 40% in October and 38% this month). But, in what must be seen as moderately good news for President Bush, one in five (21%) Americans now say that the surge is working, up from 9 percent in May and 17 percent in October. The same number (21%) say it is too early too tell and 20 percent are unsure.
These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,335 adults surveyed online between December 4 and 12, 2007 by Harris Interactive
®.
Situation for Troops
One other bright spot for the Administration is what Americans currently believe regarding the situation for the troops on the ground in Iraq. Only one-quarter (25%) now believe that the situation for American troops is getting worse. This is down from 32 percent in October and over 50 percent early this year, and is the lowest since this question was first asked in January of 2004. One-quarter (24%) of Americans believe the situation for U.S. troops is getting better, almost unchanged from 25 percent last month. Just over two in five (42%) believe there has been no real change; this is up from October when 35 percent believed this and is also the highest since January of 2004.
President Bush
’s Rating on Iraq
While the news from Iraq seems to be getting better and Americans
’ attitude towards various aspects of the war is improving, this has yet to translate into positive changes for President Bush. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) give him negative ratings on his handling of Iraq, almost unchanged from October
’s 67 percent. Three in ten (29%) give him positive ratings, unchanged from October. While these are off of his lows from November of last year (26% positive, 71% negative), they are far from his still among his lowest ratings since the war began.
So What?
As 2008 dawns and we head towards the fifth anniversary of the start of the war in Iraq, the fact that these numbers are slowly moving up will provide an interesting commentary to the presidential and congressional elections. The question is, will the candidates continue to focus as heavily on the war or will they move towards other issues? Only time will tell.
| TABLE 1 |
| RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ |
| "Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the issue of Iraq |
| over the last several months?" |
| Base: All Adults |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
2003 |
|
2004 |
|
March |
|
April |
|
May |
|
July |
|
Sept |
|
Nov |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
April |
|
May |
|
June |
|
July |
|
Sept |
|
Dec |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| Positive (NET) |
|
56 |
|
67 |
|
63 |
|
49 |
|
47 |
|
41 |
|
51 |
|
49 |
|
43 |
|
42 |
|
41 |
|
39 |
|
41 |
|
42 |
| Excellent |
|
29 |
|
38 |
|
34 |
|
21 |
|
16 |
|
15 |
|
20 |
|
18 |
|
15 |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
15 |
|
14 |
|
12 |
| Pretty good |
|
27 |
|
29 |
|
28 |
|
29 |
|
31 |
|
26 |
|
31 |
|
31 |
|
29 |
|
29 |
|
27 |
|
24 |
|
27 |
|
30 |
| Negative (NET) |
|
43 |
|
32 |
|
36 |
|
50 |
|
51 |
|
58 |
|
46 |
|
49 |
|
55 |
|
56 |
|
58 |
|
58 |
|
58 |
|
57 |
| Only fair |
|
16 |
|
15 |
|
18 |
|
22 |
|
19 |
|
19 |
|
20 |
|
19 |
|
18 |
|
18 |
|
19 |
|
17 |
|
17 |
|
19 |
| Poor |
|
27 |
|
17 |
|
18 |
|
28 |
|
32 |
|
38 |
|
26 |
|
30 |
|
37 |
|
39 |
|
39 |
|
40 |
|
41 |
|
37 |
| Not sure |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
3 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
| |
|
2005 |
|
2006 |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
May |
|
July |
|
Sept |
|
Dec |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
May |
|
Sept |
|
Nov |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| Positive (NET) |
|
39 |
|
42 |
|
37 |
|
34 |
|
34 |
|
29 |
|
36 |
|
30 |
|
29 |
|
32 |
|
26 |
| Excellent |
|
13 |
|
18 |
|
13 |
|
11 |
|
10 |
|
9 |
|
12 |
|
8 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
7 |
| Pretty good |
|
26 |
|
24 |
|
24 |
|
23 |
|
24 |
|
20 |
|
25 |
|
21 |
|
20 |
|
23 |
|
20 |
| Negative (NET) |
|
59 |
|
56 |
|
61 |
|
64 |
|
65 |
|
68 |
|
61 |
|
68 |
|
68 |
|
64 |
|
71 |
| Only fair |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
19 |
|
20 |
|
18 |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
20 |
|
21 |
|
22 |
|
21 |
| Poor |
|
42 |
|
36 |
|
42 |
|
44 |
|
46 |
|
52 |
|
41 |
|
48 |
|
47 |
|
42 |
|
50 |
| Not sure |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
3 |
|
3 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
2 |
| |
|
2007 |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
May |
|
August |
|
Oct |
|
Dec |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| Positive (NET) |
|
26 |
|
27 |
|
30 |
|
28 |
|
29 |
|
29 |
| Excellent |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
8 |
| Pretty good |
|
19 |
|
20 |
|
23 |
|
21 |
|
23 |
|
21 |
| Negative (NET) |
|
70 |
|
71 |
|
67 |
|
67 |
|
67 |
|
66 |
| Only fair |
|
22 |
|
21 |
|
22 |
|
19 |
|
21 |
|
22 |
| Poor |
|
49 |
|
49 |
|
45 |
|
48 |
|
46 |
|
44 |
| Not sure |
|
3 |
|
3 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
| TABLE 2 |
| SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS - GETTING BETTER OR WORSE |
| "Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is...?" |
| Base: All Adults |
|
|
|
| |
|
2004 |
|
Jan |
|
Feb |
|
March |
|
April |
|
May |
|
June |
|
July |
|
Sept |
|
Dec |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| Getting better |
|
24 |
|
22 |
|
24 |
|
9 |
|
11 |
|
19 |
|
18 |
|
15 |
|
18 |
| Getting worse |
|
36 |
|
38 |
|
38 |
|
64 |
|
65 |
|
49 |
|
45 |
|
54 |
|
50 |
| No real change |
|
31 |
|
31 |
|
30 |
|
20 |
|
19 |
|
26 |
|
30 |
|
26 |
|
25 |
| Not sure |
|
8 |
|
9 |
|
8 |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
6 |
|
7 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
| |
|
2005 |
|
2006 |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
May |
|
July |
|
Sept |
|
Dec |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
May |
|
Sept |
|
Nov |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| Getting better |
|
13 |
|
21 |
|
21 |
|
17 |
|
19 |
|
20 |
|
22 |
|
17 |
|
20 |
|
17 |
|
9 |
| Getting worse |
|
53 |
|
41 |
|
39 |
|
44 |
|
43 |
|
43 |
|
36 |
|
46 |
|
43 |
|
45 |
|
58 |
| No real change |
|
28 |
|
33 |
|
34 |
|
35 |
|
33 |
|
32 |
|
35 |
|
32 |
|
31 |
|
31 |
|
27 |
| Not sure |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
4 |
|
5 |
|
5 |
|
7 |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
7 |
|
6 |
| |
|
2007 |
|
Jan |
|
March |
|
May |
|
August |
|
Oct. |
|
Dec. |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| Getting better |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
18 |
|
20 |
|
25 |
|
24 |
| Getting worse |
|
55 |
|
51 |
|
46 |
|
42 |
|
32 |
|
25 |
| No real change |
|
26 |
|
28 |
|
29 |
|
30 |
|
35 |
|
42 |
| Not sure |
|
7 |
|
8 |
|
8 |
|
8 |
|
7 |
|
10 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
| TABLE 3 |
| LIKELY IMPACT OF SENDING MORE TROOPS TO IRAQ |
| "What do you think of the so-called 'surge', that is the sending of |
| 25,000 more troops into Iraq, earlier this year?" |
| Base: All Adults |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
May |
|
October |
|
December |
| |
% |
|
% |
|
% |
| It is working |
|
9 |
|
17 |
|
21 |
| It is not working |
|
38 |
|
40 |
|
38 |
| It is too early to tell |
|
41 |
|
28 |
|
21 |
| Not sure |
|
12 |
|
15 |
|
20 |
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
Note: The question in May and October did not include the words
“earlier this year
”.
Methodology
This Harris Poll
® was conducted online within the United States between December 4 and 12, 2007 among 2,335 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents
’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words
“margin of error
” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.