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Political Last Updated: Dec 26, 2007 - 2:23:30 PM


Clinton and Giuliani Top List of Those People Say Would Never Get Their Vote
By George Washington University
Dec 20, 2007 - 2:19:04 PM

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The latest edition of The George Washington University Battleground 2008 Poll finds a negative political environment (71% wrong track) with voters very concerned about economic issues, the war in Iraq, immigration, and health care.

However, the Democratic Party enjoys just a six-point advantage on both the generic congressional ballot (46%-40%) and the generic presidential ballot (47%-41%). Asked to assess the job performance of the parties in Congress, a majority of likely voters disapprove of the job performance of the Republicans in Congress (61% disapprove) and of the job performance of the Democrats in Congress (54% disapprove).

Voters have similar concerns about the job performance of President Bush with 59% disapproving of his job performance, though a majority (55%) of voters approve of him as a person.

On Iraq, while a majority of voters (52%) think the war was not worth fighting, a plurality (43%) of voters believes that the situation has improved over the last six months.

This dissatisfaction with Washington also is seen on name identifications with majorities of voters holding unfavorable views about George W. Bush (55%) and the Republicans in Congress (51%) as well as 49% with unfavorable views about the Democrats in Congress.

With less than three weeks until the Iowa Caucuses, this GW-Battleground Poll illustrates the intensely competitive climate among the presidential candidates, said Christopher Arterton, dean of GW s Graduate School of Political Management. Once again, it seems the presidential election will be about pocketbook issues and which candidate most clearly articulates a vision for change.

Among the 2008 Republican presidential candidates, all have at least a plurality of voters with a favorable view of them, including Romney (41% favorable), Giuliani (49% favorable), McCain (58% favorable), and Thompson (35% favorable). The GOP primary ballot is led by Mike Huckabee (23%) and Rudy Giuliani (21%).

Among the 2008 Democratic presidential candidates, with the exception of Hillary Clinton (50% unfavorable), all of them also have at least a plurality of voters with a favorable image of them including Barack Obama (57% favorable) and John Edwards (51% favorable). The Democratic primary ballot is led by Hillary Clinton (47%), followed by Barack Obama (24%).

However, when voters are asked which candidate they would never vote for, it is Clinton (37%) and Giuliani (15%) who lead on this measure.

On trial 2008 ballots, Clinton leads both Giuliani (49%-44%) and Romney (50%-44%) and Obama also leads both Giuliani (46%-43%) and Romney (47%-41%).

A considerable portion of this study was devoted to the middle class squeeze. Voters have mixed views about the national economy (36% poor versus 26% excellent/good) while holding favorable views about their personal economic situation (58% excellent/good). The top economic concern for voters is rising health care costs (25%) followed by deficit/debt (14%), gas costs (14%), and taxes (12%).

On a series of questions about the economic conditions and the future, strong majorities of voters believe that it is tough for middle class people to make ends meet (70% agree) while also being optimistic about where their economic situation will be five years from now (68%) and believing that anyone can get ahead with hard work (64%). However, two-thirds (67%) of likely voters believe the next generation will not have a better quality of life. Though on a different question, a plurality (39%) of voters believe their children will be better off in the future. In addition, strong majorities of voters believe that the next President can have meaningful influence on helping families to become part of the middle class.

Voters split on whether they would like to work more for more financial security (47%) or have more time to spend with their family even if it meant earning less money (44%).

Examining these results, Republican pollster Brian Tringali said, The most revealing finding in this survey may be the fact that so many Americans think the next President can make their lives better and can help the middle class. Despite real and deep concerns about the next generation of Americans, voters today have confidence that the next President can make all of our lives better.

Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster, said, Americans pessimism about the economy now runs as high as in 1992, the last time a Democrat was swept into office, and voters appear ready to vote their pocketbook. While Democrats maintain advantages on every ballot test, these leads may prove fleeting if they cannot speak to the change - economic and otherwise - that voters so desperately want.

This bipartisan GW-Battleground 2008 Poll surveyed 1,013 registered likely voters nationwide December 9-12, 2007, and yields a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

First conducted in 1991, this year marks the poll s 16th anniversary. It has accurately portrayed the political climate through four presidential and three mid-term election cycles. This nationally recognized series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. The George Washington University is the sponsor of the GW-Battleground Poll, a highly regarded, bipartisan election survey conducted by top polling firms Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group. The GW-Battleground Poll continues to be an in-depth bipartisan look at the political climate and a leader in setting the standards for polling.



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