Looking ahead into the future, and the year 2020, most people in five
European countries and the U.S. believe that the dominant world power
will either be the United States or China. But, there is some
disagreement over which one of these will actually be the most dominant
country. Pluralities in France (47%), Spain (45%) and Italy (38%)
believe that China will be the dominant world power. A plurality of
adults in the United States (40%) as well as one-third of British adults
(32%) and 30 percent of Germans all say the U.S. will be the dominant
world power in 2020.
These are some of the results of a
Financial Times/Harris Poll
conducted online by Harris Interactive
® among
a total of 6,590 adults aged 16 to 64 within France, Germany, Great
Britain, Spain, the United States, and adults aged 18 to 64 in Italy,
between November 1 and 14, 2007.
Looking more specifically at China, majorities in Italy (69%), France
(63%), Germany (57%) and France all believe that China should be
regarded more as a competitor of Europe than as a partner. A plurality
of Spaniards (43%) also believe this, but one-third (33%) believe China
should be regarded as a partner
– the highest
proportion in the European countries to feel this way. In the U.S., a
majority of adults (58%) believe China should be regarded more as a
competitor of the U.S. than as a partner.
Russia is viewed differently than China. Majorities in Italy (61%),
Germany (55%), Spain (52%) and France (50%) believe Russia should be
regarded more as a partner of Europe, not a competitor. Adults in Great
Britain are a little more divided as just over one-third (34%) say
Russia should be regarded more as a competitor, three in ten (31%) say
it should be viewed as a partner of Europe and just over one-third (35%)
are not sure. For Americans, a plurality (43%) believes Russia should be
regarded more as a competitor of the U.S. while one-quarter (22%) say
partner.
Human Rights Abuses
Strong majorities in all six countries believe that European or U.S.
governments are right to speak out about possible human rights abuses in
Russia and China. In fact, the replies given in relation to China and
Russia are almost identical for each in the six countries. It seems that
this is a case where it is more the issue of human rights rather than
the country involved which determines public attitudes.
So What?
While 2020 is only 13 years away, large numbers of adults in these six
countries believe that China will be the dominant world power. At the
same time, China is regarded more as a competitor, than as a partner.
How these two perceptions align in the future have both economic and
political implications.
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TABLE 1
DOMINANT WORLD POWER IN 2020
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“Thinking now of the future and the
year 2020, which, if any, of the following countries or regions
will be
the dominant world
power?
”
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Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great
Britain
|
|
France
|
|
Italy
|
|
Spain
|
|
Germany
|
|
United
States
|
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
The U.S.
|
|
32
|
|
19
|
|
27
|
|
23
|
|
30
|
|
40
|
|
China
|
|
28
|
|
47
|
|
38
|
|
45
|
|
25
|
|
24
|
|
Europe
|
|
4
|
|
6
|
|
7
|
|
12
|
|
14
|
|
4
|
|
India
|
|
3
|
|
7
|
|
10
|
|
1
|
|
4
|
|
2
|
|
Russia
|
|
3
|
|
2
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
3
|
|
1
|
|
Japan
|
|
1
|
|
4
|
|
4
|
|
7
|
|
3
|
|
2
|
|
Other
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
None of these
|
|
2
|
|
*
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
|
4
|
|
2
|
|
Not sure
|
|
26
|
|
13
|
|
10
|
|
10
|
|
17
|
|
24
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
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* = less than 0.5%
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TABLE 2
CHINA AS PARTNER OR COMPETITOR
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“Should China be regarded more as a
partner of
[EUROPE/the U.S.
]
or more as a competitor?
”
|
|
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great Britain
|
|
France
|
|
Italy
|
|
Spain
|
|
Germany
|
|
United States
|
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
China should be regarded more as a competitor of (EUROPE/THE U.S.)
|
|
55
|
|
63
|
|
69
|
|
43
|
|
57
|
|
58
|
|
China should be regarded more as a partner of (EUROPE/THE U.S.)
|
|
15
|
|
23
|
|
21
|
|
33
|
|
30
|
|
21
|
|
Not sure
|
|
31
|
|
15
|
|
9
|
|
24
|
|
13
|
|
22
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
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TABLE 3
RUSSIA AS PARTNER OR COMPETITOR
|
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“Should Russia be regarded more as a
partner of (EUROPE/the U.S.) or more as a competitor?
”
|
|
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great Britain
|
|
France
|
|
Italy
|
|
Spain
|
|
Germany
|
|
United States
|
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
Russia should be regarded more as a partner of (EUROPE/THE U.S.)
|
|
31
|
|
50
|
|
61
|
|
52
|
|
55
|
|
23
|
|
Russia should be regarded more as a competitor of (EUROPE/THE U.S.)
|
|
34
|
|
27
|
|
22
|
|
18
|
|
30
|
|
43
|
|
Not sure
|
|
35
|
|
24
|
|
17
|
|
30
|
|
15
|
|
33
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
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TABLE 4
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN RUSSIA
|
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“(Are European governments/Is the U.S.
government) right to speak out about possible human rights abuses
in Russia or not?
”
|
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Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great
Britain
|
|
France
|
|
Italy
|
|
Spain
|
|
Germany
|
|
United
States
|
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
Yes
|
|
67
|
|
82
|
|
89
|
|
79
|
|
64
|
|
62
|
|
No
|
|
10
|
|
4
|
|
3
|
|
8
|
|
19
|
|
16
|
|
Not sure
|
|
23
|
|
14
|
|
8
|
|
13
|
|
17
|
|
23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
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TABLE 5
HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN CHINA
|
|
“(Are European governments/Is the U.S.
government) right to speak out about possible human rights abuses
in China or not?
”
|
|
Base: All EU adults in five countries and U.S. adults
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Great
Britain
|
|
France
|
|
Italy
|
|
Spain
|
|
Germany
|
|
United
States
|
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
|
Yes
|
|
67
|
|
86
|
|
93
|
|
81
|
|
65
|
|
65
|
|
No
|
|
11
|
|
4
|
|
3
|
|
9
|
|
19
|
|
15
|
|
Not sure
|
|
22
|
|
10
|
|
5
|
|
10
|
|
16
|
|
20
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
|
Methodology
This
FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive
among a total of 6,590 adults (aged 16-64) within France (1,075),
Germany (1,114), Great Britain (1,117), Spain (1,076) and the United
States (1,108) and adults (aged 18-64) in Italy (1,100) between 1 and 14
November 2007. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet
usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their
actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was
used to adjust for respondents
’ propensity to
be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability
sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often
not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage
error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question
wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments.
Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words
“margin
of error
” as they are misleading. All that
can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different
probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response
rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close
to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have
agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been
weighted to reflect the composition of the adult populations of the
respective countries. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to
participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical
sampling error can be calculated.